Musings of a Recovering Lutheran: science
I heard the voice of the Lord, saying, 

Whom shall I send, and who will go for us?

Then said I, Here am I; send me.

Isaiah 6:8 (KJV)

Showing posts with label science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label science. Show all posts

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

When experts fail

Arnold Kling has a good essay on the failure of expert opinion in the realm of public policy.

Key quote:

Expertise becomes problematic when it is linked to power. First, it creates a problem for democratic governance. The elected officials who are accountable to voters lack the competence to make well-informed decisions. And, the experts to whom legislators cede authority are unelected. The citizens who are affected by the decisions of these experts have no input into their selection, evaluation, or removal.

A second problem with linking expertise to power is that it diminishes the diversity and competitive pressure faced by the experts.

I would add another problem to the list: experts often disagree among themselves about the basic nature of a problem, the facts about the problem, and the possible solutions. The notion there is one single "expert" opinion about any given issue is usually false. This problem becomes especially acute when the issue is scientific in nature.

Disagreement among scientific experts is not the problem. The problem is when a biased, scientifically illiterate media picks one side as the One Sacred Truth and ignores (or even demonizes) all other competing opinions.

If you ever read a newspaper story or watch a news report that uses phrases like "scientific consensus" or "a majority of scientists believe ..." it is safe to assume the reporter is trying to pull the wool over your eyes. Consensus is not science. Scientific theories are not voted on, they gain or lose credibility by the weight of evidence - something many journalists do not seem to understand or prefer to ignore.

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Thursday, February 12, 2015

"The science is settled because we say so!"

The idea that skeptics of global warming are ignorant of science appears to be a myth.

Are global warming skeptics simply ignorant about climate science?

Not so, says a forthcoming paper in the journal Advances in Political Psychology by Yale Professor Dan Kahan. He finds that skeptics score about the same (in fact slightly better) on climate science questions.

The study asked 2,000 respondents nine questions about where they thought scientists stand on climate science.

On average, skeptics got about 4.5 questions correct, whereas manmade warming believers got about 4 questions right.

One question, for instance, asked if scientists believe that warming would “increase the risk of skin cancer.” Skeptics were more likely than believers to know that is false.

Skeptics were also more likely to correctly say that if the North Pole icecap melted, global sea levels would not rise. One can test this with a glass of water and an ice cube – the water level will not change after the ice melts. Antarctic ice melting, however, would increase sea levels because much of it rests on land.

The rise of "settled science" is a troubling development in science, since it appears to be little more than telling skeptics of a particular theory to be quiet. In reality there is no such thing as settled science: obsolete scientific theories are abandoned by scientists because the evidence no longer supports them, not because some authoritarian-minded group declares the debate over and henceforth heretics must repent. "Settled science" turns the scientific method on its head by replacing experimentation and observation with polling and (sometimes) bullying. In fact, "settled science" advocates sometimes bear an eerie resemblance to religious extremists who feel their beliefs have been blasphemed.

Perhaps the two scientific areas most damaged by the “settled science” myth are the theories of evolution and global warming. There are plenty of good scientists who hold a variety of views on these theories. But you wouldn’t know that if you relied on the popular media and the journalists who are enamored with the “settled science” myth. According to these journalists, there are the rational, intellectual “good guys” (supporters of the theories of global warming and evolution) and the anti-science anti-intellectual “bad guys” (anyone who dares to be skeptical). Unfortunately, there are some scientists – who really should know better! – who take the easy way out and embrace "settled science" to stop pesky debates before they start.

Certainly the history of science shows us that scientific debate can be heated at times, but is stifling dissent in the name of “settled science” really such a good idea? Why not follow the evidence where it leads? And are the theories of evolution and global warming really so fragile they cannot withstand some scrutiny?

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Friday, March 21, 2014

Back to the Moon

Gene Grush, the former propulsion and power division chief at NASA Johnson Space Center, has written a series of five articles is which he make the case for the US returning to the Moon.

  • It’s time to return

  • China’s moon rover a wake-up call

  • Return to the moon in four years

  • How America can lead the world back

  • Why now is the time for a moon base

    An interesting proposal. Unfortunately, there is little chance of any of it coming to pass. For better or worse it seems America's days of exploring space are drawing to a close.

    Perhaps that should not be surprising. Much of our nation's political leadership, academia, and media worship in the Holy Church of Settled Science. There the twin idols of Evolution and Global Warming reign supreme, and the heretics ("deniers") are warned to keep out. A nation with this kind of leadership is incapable of a sustained exploration of space, and will soon lose interest in even trying.

    But perhaps private companies like SpaceX can turn the tide, and help America recover its heritage of bold, independent thinking. We'll see.

  • Friday, March 14, 2014

    A question of origins

    More about this video can be found here.

    Saturday, March 08, 2014

    Saturday, March 01, 2014

    Worship science? Not so fast!

    According to the online Merraim-Webster Dictionary there are two definitions of scientism. The first is "methods and attitudes typical of or attributed to the natural scientist". The second is "an exaggerated trust in the efficacy of the methods of natural science applied to all areas of investigation (as in philosophy, the social sciences, and the humanities)".

    It was the second definition that I was thinking of as I read this article about fraud in peer-reviewed scientific journals.

    Key quote from the article:

    Some 120 papers published in established scientific journals over the last few years have been found to be frauds, created by nothing more than an automated word generator that puts random, fancy-sounding words together in plausible sentence structures. As a result they have been pulled from the journals that originally published them.

    The rise of scientism in Western society - an outright worship of science, in some cases - is one of the most disturbing societal trends in human history. Science has become a religion to many secularists, and is in danger of ceasing to be science at all.

    Two examples of this scientism are the theories of evolution and global warming. Both are asserted to be "settled science" (read: holy scripture) by their more fanatical believers. Advocates of these theories in the scientific community are worshipped as priests or prophets. Dissenters, even if they are scientists, are smeared as heretics and enemies of the True Faith. Science is in danger of becoming a sacred priesthood in which only those who state a priori that everything must have a naturalistic explanation, or whose theories conform to what a handful say is real science, will be considered authentic scientists.

    I believe than most scientists are distressed by the fraud uncovered in the aforementioned article. One of the forces driving this fraud is the "publish or perish" mentality in most major universities, in which young faculty members seeking tenure must publish a certain number of articles in peer-reviewed journals. In those circumstances the temptation to cut corners is powerful. But despite what many scientists may have come to believe, publication in a peer-reviewed scientific journal is not part of the scientific method. Perhaps it is time to reconsider the unusual emphasis many universities have on publication in journals.

    Yet the real problem posed by scientism is not from those in the scientific community, although hucksters and hotheads like Dr. Michael Mann and Dr. Richard Dawkins don't help science very much. Instead, it is non-scientists in politics and the media who pose a bigger danger. These individuals see science (or, to be more accurate, scientific-sounding jargon) as a weapon that can be used to squelch ideas and opinions they disagree with. The use of the phrase "settled science" is revealing, since it indicates the speaker knows little or nothing about actual science. If they did, they would know that outmoded scientific theories are abandoned because they no longer attract any defenders, and not because some talking head on TV says so. Evolution and global warming are on shaky ground because - contrary to their advocates most fervent beliefs - the scientific evidence for both is weak.

    Scientism asserts that science is supreme, the one human pursuit that holds the promise of being completely free of bias and error. The truth is exactly the opposite: science can be just as biased and inaccurate as any other human endeavor - and all the more dangerous because some of its advocates are bogus enough to claim otherwise.

    Friday, February 07, 2014

    The great debate

    Bill Nye (a.k.a. "The Science Guy") and Ken Ham of Answers in Genesis have a debate:

    Thursday, February 06, 2014

    Running backwards

    Dr. Granville Sewell (a former mathematics professor of mine) explains how evolution is a natural process that runs backwards:

    Read more about Dr. Sewell here.

    Friday, January 17, 2014

    Thursday, February 28, 2013

    Another launch for the SpaceX Dragon

    Weather permitting, SpaceX will make its second launch to re-supply the International Space Station tomorrow.

    The end may be near...

    ...for the planet Mars.

    Comet C/2013 A1 Siding Spring may hit Mars in October of 2014.

    Key quote:

    Discovered on January 3, C/2013 A1 Siding Spring was typical of comet finds: a dim moving speck on a photograph. However, recent observations suggest that Comet Siding Spring could be extremely interesting indeed – its current orbit brings it only 37,000 km from Mars.

    The discovery conditions of C/2013 A1 indicated that the comet was an intrinsically bright object on a retrograde orbit through the inner Solar System. Translated: a large object moving at very high speeds relative to the planets. The brightness of the comet suggests an object between 10-50 km in diameter, similar to that of Comet Hale-Bopp, which dazzled the Northern Hemisphere for 18 months in 1996-1997. If we were to apply the Torino Impact Scale to Mars, C/2013 A1 would be rated a 7.

    Should the C/2013 A1 impact Mars next October, scientists will have a front row seat for one of the rarest of all geological events – an impact capable of causing a mass extinction had it been aimed at Earth instead. As the comet makes its closest approach to Mars, it will be racing outward from the sun at approximately 56 km/s relative to Mars. If the comet were to impact Mars, the energy released would be on the order of trillions of megatons, while the resulting crater could be up to 500km across and 2.5km deep depending on the exact size of the comet.

    I blame global warming for this possible disaster. Or maybe the budget crisis in Washington. Whatever.

    Monday, December 24, 2012

    Hot weather...

    ... and even hotter rhetoric. Richard Parncutt, a Professor at the University of Graz, Austria, is calling for the death penalty for skeptics of global warming.

    Let's leave aside the fact that threatening to slaughter your opponents is not a sign of confidence in your argument. Let's also leave aside the fact that Parncutt is a Professor of Systematic Musicology (whatever that is), and can in no way be considered an expert in climate. Professor Parncutt's proposal for witch hunts and kangaroo courts to seek out and destroy "deniers" is scientism in its rawest form.

    Scientism is the belief that science alone can explain every phenomenon, and that the scientific method is the only rational method for solving problems. To some, that has been expanded to the belief that science is a god. Not surprisingly, trouble will always follow.

    When political goals become the most important, and religion is harnessed to achieve those goals, the result is a religion that bears no real resemblance to what its followers profess to believe. Most Christians look back with shame and embarrassment at many of the political antics of the Catholic Church during the Middle Ages. For the same reason science, if it is used to further political goals, can cease to be science. Much of the public debate (if it can be called that) about global warming has a definite intolerant religious fervor to it.

    Prior to starting this blog, I used to argue with people on other websites about issues such as evolution and homosexuality. In the process I learned three important things. The first was that the less someone knew about science, the more likely they were to bring up "scientific consensus" as a way to invoke cloture on debates they would rather not have. The second was to never respond to anyone who thinks the New York Times, Washington Post, NPR, Fox News, CNN, MSNBC, or the network news programs are reliable sources of scientific and technical information.

    And the third? One of the reasons I blog anonymously is because of the "behead the anti-science infidel!" attitude of some of the folks I encountered. Rather than disprove what I said about homosexuality, evolution, or whatever, I found myself accused of all sorts of crimes against humanity. Much of what passes for debate on the Internet - and much of the media, for that matter - is not debate so much as an Inquisition in which those who do not hold the same views as secular progressives are criminals to be prosecuted. Professor Parncutt has a definite Grand Inquisitor attitude about him.