The mathematics of the post-Christian Church

David Barnhart has an interesting post at his blog that shows the membership of the ELCA since its beginnings in 1987. With the exception of 1990 and 1991 the denomination has lost members every year.

Overall, the ELCA has experienced a 19.2% decline in its membership from 1987 (5,288,048) to 2010 (4,274,855). By far the steepest decline was from 2009 to 2010 (5.9%, or 268,182 members). It will be interesting to see what the figures for 2011 will be like.

Supporters of the ELCA might argue that most denominations have been losing members during that period of time. That may be so, but as I recall one of the major selling points of the ELCA's 2009 decision to reject the clear teachings of the Gospel was that the new emphasis on "diversity" and "tolerance" would bring in the unchurched. That does not seem to be happening. The mathematics of post-Christian churches appears to be subtraction (driving away faithful Christians) and division (bringing conflict and chaos among those who remain).

By far the most interesting aspect - to me, anyway - of the ELCA's decline is the fact that it is slow and steady. Had the ELCA lost 19.2% (one in five) of its members in 2009-10 instead of the actual 5.9% it might have caused quite a stir among those left behind. A major loss like that would have captured the attention of even the most laid-back of laypersons. It might even (horror of horrors!) have caused people to dare to ask questions of the ELCA's leadership.

It is a situation familiar to every driver. If one of your tires blows out, you are forced to stop the car and deal with the problem. But if you have a slow leak, you can be tempted to put off facing the situation and drive on. The second scenario is the one the ELCA appears to be locked into.

The question of what the ELCA will look like a decade from now also fascinates me. I seriously doubt that the ELCA will one day go completely out of business, so the question is: will it be absorbed into another denomination (such as the Episcopal Church USA) or become a small rump of what it once was? To me the latter seems most likely. But only God knows, and He will make it known to us in good time.